The U.S. recession may have ended in June 2009, according to the official arbiter of the business cycle. But by all signs, the recovery is just beginning.

Expected fourth-quarter growth of 3 percent to 3.5 percent is already being dismissed as another flash in the pan: been there, done that. After all, in late 2009 and early 2010 the U.S. economy produced three consecutive quarters of real gross-domestic-product growth just shy of 4 percent, only to see it fade. Real GDP rose less than 1 percent in the first half of 2011.

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